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Its cut-off is {thr:CAD}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:CAD}.","when":["has_range:CAD"]},{"text":"The range shows how strongly the estimate depends on which patients the model learned from.","when":["has_range:CAD"]},{"text":"That is below the cut-off.","when":["below_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"That is at or above the cut-off.","when":["above_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"The factors that pulled the estimate down: {factors_down:3}.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"result","parts":[{"text":"The angiogram showed: {truth:CAD}.","when":[]},{"text":"Here the estimate and the real result agree.","when":["agrees:CAD"]},{"text":"Here the estimate and the real result disagree.","when":["disagrees:CAD"]},{"text":"This is a model estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":true}],"title":"A low estimate"},{"blurb":"How to tell the three arteries apart, and what the model weighed for one of them.","id":"one-artery","preset":"lad-only","steps":[{"camera":{"target":"LAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"first-artery","parts":[{"text":"Colour shows only the estimated probability. Which artery is which comes from the outline, the label and where it sits.","when":[]},{"text":"The {name:LAD} ({plain:LAD}) lies on the {where:LAD}. The model estimates {p:LAD} for it.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:LAD}.","when":["has_range:LAD"]},{"text":"The range shows how strongly the estimate depends on which patients the model learned from.","when":["has_range:LAD"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:LAD"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"LCX"},"highlight":null,"id":"second-artery","parts":[{"text":"The {name:LCX} lies on the {where:LCX}. The model estimates {p:LCX} for it.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:LCX}.","when":["has_range:LCX"]},{"text":"That is well below its cut-off of {thr:LCX}.","when":["well_below_threshold:LCX"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:LCX"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"RCA"},"highlight":null,"id":"third-artery","parts":[{"text":"The {name:RCA} lies on the {where:RCA}. The model estimates {p:RCA} for it.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:RCA}.","when":["has_range:RCA"]},{"text":"That is well below its cut-off of {thr:RCA}.","when":["well_below_threshold:RCA"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:RCA"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"LAD"},"highlight":{"direction":"up","target":"LAD","top":3},"id":"reasons","parts":[{"text":"Back to the {name:LAD}. Here is what the model weighed for this artery.","when":[]},{"text":"The factors that raised the {name:LAD} estimate: {factors_up:3}.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"result","parts":[{"text":"The angiogram showed: {name:LAD}, {truth:LAD}; {name:LCX}, {truth:LCX}; {name:RCA}, {truth:RCA}.","when":[]},{"text":"For every artery the estimate and the real result agree.","when":["agrees:LAD","agrees:LCX","agrees:RCA"]},{"text":"This is a model estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":true}],"title":"One artery stands out"},{"blurb":"Three arteries, three estimates, then the angiogram.","id":"arteries-differ","preset":"3-vessel","steps":[{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"intro","parts":[{"text":"This patient had an angiogram, but its result stays hidden for now. First, what did the model estimate for each artery?","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"LAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"first-artery","parts":[{"text":"The {name:LAD} lies on the {where:LAD}. Estimate {p:LAD}, cut-off {thr:LAD}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:LAD}.","when":["has_range:LAD"]},{"text":"The range shows how strongly the estimate depends on which patients the model learned from.","when":["has_range:LAD"]},{"text":"That is below its cut-off.","when":["below_threshold:LAD"]},{"text":"That is at or above its cut-off.","when":["above_threshold:LAD"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:LAD"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"RCA"},"highlight":null,"id":"second-artery","parts":[{"text":"The {name:RCA} lies on the {where:RCA}. Estimate {p:RCA}, cut-off {thr:RCA}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:RCA}.","when":["has_range:RCA"]},{"text":"That is below its cut-off.","when":["below_threshold:RCA"]},{"text":"That is at or above its cut-off.","when":["above_threshold:RCA"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:RCA"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"LCX"},"highlight":null,"id":"third-artery","parts":[{"text":"The {name:LCX} lies on the {where:LCX}, so it is partly hidden from the front: turn the heart or use the view buttons. Estimate {p:LCX}, cut-off {thr:LCX}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:LCX}.","when":["has_range:LCX"]},{"text":"That is below its cut-off.","when":["below_threshold:LCX"]},{"text":"That is at or above its cut-off.","when":["above_threshold:LCX"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:LCX"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"result","parts":[{"text":"The angiogram showed: {name:LAD}, {truth:LAD}; {name:LCX}, {truth:LCX}; {name:RCA}, {truth:RCA}.","when":[]},{"text":"For the {name:LAD} the estimate and the real result disagree.","when":["disagrees:LAD"]},{"text":"For the {name:LCX} the estimate and the real result disagree.","when":["disagrees:LCX"]},{"text":"For the {name:RCA} the estimate and the real result disagree.","when":["disagrees:RCA"]},{"text":"Where an estimate lands on the other side of its cut-off from the real result, the model got that estimate wrong. That is why this is an estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":["any_disagrees"]},{"text":"Here every estimate agrees with the real result. This is still a model estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":["all_agree"]}],"reveal_truth":true}],"title":"Three arteries, one patient"},{"blurb":"The hold-out patient the model gets most wrong, told honestly.","id":"confidently-wrong","preset":"hard-case","steps":[{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"intro","parts":[{"text":"Not every case is straightforward. Let's look at what the model said, and then at the real result.","when":[]},{"text":"This is one of the hold-out patients the model got most wrong.","when":["disagrees:CAD"]},{"text":"This hold-out patient was picked because some estimates sit far from the real result.","when":["agrees:CAD"]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":{"direction":"up","target":"CAD","top":3},"id":"estimate","parts":[{"text":"The model estimates {p:CAD} for coronary artery disease. Its cut-off is {thr:CAD}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:CAD}.","when":["has_range:CAD"]},{"text":"The range shows how strongly the estimate depends on which patients the model learned from.","when":["has_range:CAD"]},{"text":"That is far above the cut-off.","when":["well_above_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"That is far below the cut-off.","when":["well_below_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"The whole range sits on one side of the cut-off, so training on different patients would probably not have changed which side it falls on.","when":["range_clear_of_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:CAD"]},{"text":"The factors that raised the estimate: {factors_up:3}.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":false},{"camera":{"target":"CAD"},"highlight":null,"id":"result","parts":[{"text":"The angiogram showed: {truth:CAD}.","when":[]},{"text":"The estimate and the real result disagree: a model can be confident and still wrong.","when":["disagrees:CAD"]},{"text":"This is a model estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":true},{"camera":{"target":"LCX"},"highlight":null,"id":"single-artery","parts":[{"text":"Single arteries can be off too. The {name:LCX} estimate is {p:LCX}; its cut-off is {thr:LCX}.","when":[]},{"text":"The range is {range:LCX}.","when":["has_range:LCX"]},{"text":"But the range crosses the cut-off, so the model is close to undecided on this one.","when":["range_crosses_threshold:LCX"]},{"text":"The angiogram showed: {truth:LCX}. The estimate and the real result disagree.","when":["disagrees:LCX"]},{"text":"The angiogram showed: {truth:LCX}.","when":["agrees:LCX"]},{"text":"This is a model estimate, not a diagnosis.","when":[]}],"reveal_truth":true}],"title":"When the model is confidently wrong"}]}}